Bolsonaro’s Election Defeat Could Complicate U.S. Rare Earth Plans

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

Bolsonaro has been secretly flown to Miami on a private jet, three days after losing Brazil’s presidential runoff to Lula and a day after defying a Supreme Court order to surrender his passports in a money-laundering case. The State Department is issuing visas to him and his family. Prior to the election, U.S. diplomats in Brazil were told the policy was to return the Bolsonaros to power, making them a direct target. On October 27, Justice Flávio Dino ordered federal police to investigate foreign financing of Bolsonaro’s campaign, including contacts with the Rockbridge Network (J.D. Vance), and possible links to overseas interests in Brazil’s rare earths. Bolsonaro will lose his Senate immunity in February. Rare earths are at stake for Washington in this game. The Department of War has backed a 15-year offtake of Serra Verde’s output with $750 million. USA Rare Earth bought the mine in September without an understanding with Brasília, and in September, Lula reciprocated with a law that lets a new council review changes of control over mineral assets. Inside the Trump administration, National Security Council officials have pushed to secure Brazil’s rare earths by playing nice with Lula’s government, and they have clashed with State Department officials who backed Bolsonaro, which will make it impossible to bargain over rare earths.

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